

November 14, 2025
Written by:
Giovanni Serebro
f you own a small business in Canada right now, you’re operating in a very particular moment.
Costs haven’t just gone up once, they’ve stepped up and stayed there. Wages, insurance, software, fuel, rent or leasing costs and professional services all feel heavier than they did a few years ago. The Bank of Canada has been cutting its policy rate and is now back in the mid-2% range, the lowest in several years, but that still leaves borrowing costs well above the ultra-low, pre-inflation era many owners got used to.
Statistics Canada’s latest Canadian Survey on Business Conditions shows that roughly six in ten businesses still expect cost-related pressures. Things like inflation, input costs, insurance, interest, and real estate, to be a major challenge in the near term. At the same time, CFIB’s Business Barometer has long-term small-business confidence hovering around the mid-40s to low-50s: not a collapse, but a clear signal that owners are cautious.
So the backdrop for small firms is oddly mixed:
structurally higher costs, modest relief on interest, and a mood that’s more “careful” than “confident”.
That’s the environment in which small businesses are trying to make very real, very human decisions.
From the outside, it’s “inflation, cost pressures, and subpar optimism.” From the inside, it’s much more concrete:
Revenue, meanwhile, doesn’t politely even itself out. A business lives with:
That combination makes it harder than it should be to answer basic questions like:
What’s interesting is how owners are quietly adapting.
Most owners aren’t talking about “strategy” or “macro conditions”. They’re simply trying to stay responsible and keep the business moving. In that process, a few patterns keep showing up.
Owners are still optimistic by nature, that doesn’t go away, but the optimism is becoming more bounded.
Instead of “this hire will work out”, the question becomes:
“If this hire doesn’t ramp up as fast as I’d like, can the business still absorb the cost?”
We're seeing more owners:
It’s not pessimism. It’s optimism with guardrails.
There’s a temptation in a high-cost environment to immediately chase “efficiencies”: new tools, automation, restructures.
Some owners are doing that. But many are quietly taking a step back and realising that before any of that pays off, the basics need to be right:
It’s unglamorous work. No one is posting victory laps about a cleaned-up chart of accounts. But those basic moves are what turn the financial side of the business from a source of anxiety into something owners can look at calmly.
In a high-cost world, surprises are more dangerous than ever. Yet tax has traditionally been one of the biggest “jump scares” for small businesses: all the information goes in once a year, and the result lands when it lands.
I’m seeing more owners:
Again, nothing revolutionary, just a shift from “tax as a one-time event” to “tax as a known line in the plan”.
None of these adaptations change the fact that costs are higher, demand is cautious, and the interest rate environment is only slowly easing.
What they do change is how exposed an owner is to that environment.
There’s a difference between:
Clarity doesn’t remove risk, but it turns risk into a choice instead of an accident. And in this climate, that’s a meaningful shift.
This is exactly the space I think about in our own work at Serebro Group.
Most of the owners I talk to aren’t looking for a grand restructuring. They want:
Those labels, bookkeeping, tax prep, systems, strategy, sound technical. Underneath, the intent is very simple: to help owners keep making decisions, even when everything around them is more expensive than it used to be.
It’s a way of saying:
“You can’t control the economy, but you can control how clearly you see your own business inside it.”
If you’re running a small firm in Canada right now, you’re in the part of the economy that doesn’t often make the front page, but carries a huge amount of real-world weight.
You don’t need perfect forecasts or complex dashboards to adapt to higher costs. But you do need:
Whether you build that internally or lean on outside help, that shift from instinct alone to instinct plus clarity, is one of the most practical adaptations a small business owner can make in this environment.
If you ever want to talk about what that might look like in your own business, we're always open to a conversation.